Is the economy recovering?

According to the Times yesterday the CBI is raising its economic growth forecasts as it predicts that next year Britain will enjoy the sharpest increase in corporate investment since 2007.

That sounds really good news. But I have a simpler if somewhat more blunt method of identifying economic recovery.

I got off the tube last week to do a ten minute walk to see some clients and carry out our annual review with them. They live in a nice part of West London and it is always a pleasant walk to their home.

The quite long road I walk up to find their house has the kind of property in it that Phil and Kirstie would drool over. Absolutely lovely family homes with a great deal of kerb appeal and potential for some “project work”.

Can you sense that I have spent too much time watching property programmes on TV?!

Anyway my acid test for economic recovery was that I reckon every one in six homes was either having extensive work done on it (room extensions into the loft or complete gutting and redevelopment, or was receiving delivery of goods and services).

When people spend money like this it is in my opinion an indicator of confidence in the economy, a sense of security about job prospects and a general sense of well being.

These are my favourite indicators of economic recovery but I concede that the CBI might know something about it as well!!

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